Bitcoin is currently on the verge of setting a new record for the longest period of sideways trading after the halving in April, standing at 285 days. This prolonged period of stagnation has disappointed many investors who were hoping for a significant rally in the final quarter of the year.
Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been followed by bull rallies, with prices surging by hundreds of percent in the months that follow. The reduction in block rewards for miners during halving events typically leads to a decrease in the number of new Bitcoins entering the market, which can drive up prices as long as demand remains steady or increases.
However, since the April halving, Bitcoin has been stuck in a range between $59,000 to $65,000, failing to make any significant upward movements. Several factors have been identified as contributing to this lackluster performance, including the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election, the rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the recent extension of Mt. Gox’s repayment deadline to October 2025.
The upcoming U.S. election is a particularly significant event for the cryptocurrency market, with Republican candidate Donald Trump being viewed as more crypto-friendly compared to the Democratic party. A Republican victory is expected to fuel a higher Bitcoin move, which could potentially break the current sideways trend.
In order for Bitcoin to break out of its current range, it would need to surpass and maintain a level above $69,000. This would signal a bullish breakout, potentially leading to a resumption of the broader uptrend that began in October 2023, with a target of $100,000.
While Bitcoin is entering a historically bullish period in October, characterized by potential gains in the second half of the month, there are still market strains to consider. The recent charges brought by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission against market-making and trading firms have raised concerns about potential challenges facing the crypto market leading up to the November elections.
Overall, Bitcoin’s price action is closely tied to various external factors, and investors will be closely watching the outcome of the U.S. election and other market developments for signals of a potential breakout from the current sideways trend.