Robinhood, a popular investment platform, is making a move to attract more users by offering investment contracts tied to the outcome of the upcoming US Presidential election. This new offering allows investors to speculate on specific events, such as election results, without actually owning the underlying assets. The contracts will be available for trading until Nov. 8, with prices ranging from $0.02 to $0.99, depending on market sentiment. The value of the contract for the winning candidate is expected to increase as Election Day approaches, potentially paying out close to $1 per contract. Winners will receive their payouts on Jan. 8, 2025, after the results are certified by the US Congress.
This move by Robinhood is seen as a direct challenge to Polymarket, a decentralized betting marketplace that has been a dominant player in the election contract market. Other platforms, such as BET on Solana and Trump Prediction Market Perpetuals on dYdX, also offer similar event-based options, creating a competitive landscape in this space. However, Polymarket has recently come under scrutiny for alleged market manipulation, with large wagers favoring the Republican candidate, Donald Trump. Despite these concerns, Polymarket’s CEO, Shayne Coplan, has defended the platform’s integrity and emphasized its non-partisan nature.
As of now, Polymarket’s election outcome market has seen significant volume, with current odds suggesting a 65% chance of winning for Trump and a 35% chance for his opponent, Kamala Harris. This competition in the election contract market is expected to intensify as the election draws near, with both Robinhood and Polymarket vying for users’ attention and participation. Investors will have more options than ever to engage in event-based trading and potentially profit from the outcome of the US Presidential race.