In May, many people witnessed the breathtaking aurora borealis and australis, also known as the northern and southern lights. This natural phenomenon was caused by a large solar storm, creating colorful lights in the night sky. However, what most people didn’t realize were the impacts and the preparations made to reduce them. Radio communication systems faced disruptions, Starlink experienced outages, and global navigation satellite systems had issues, affecting various sectors. Flights were rerouted, and electric grids were protected.
As a space-weather scientist, I see the challenge of issuing effective warnings when such significant events don’t directly impact most people’s lives. The current classification systems for space weather, such as the G-scale, S-scale, and R-scale, are limited in capturing the complexity of these events. While the May geomagnetic storm was classified as extreme, the effects of solar storms are difficult to measure accurately due to various factors.
Factors like the speed, mass, duration, and magnetic orientation of solar eruptions influence the impact of a storm. The May storm was a rare event, occurring once every 10 years in terms of geomagnetic activity, but the prolonged duration made it more like a 1-in-75-year event. The challenge lies in conveying the risks of space weather accurately without causing unnecessary panic or downplaying the potential impact of stronger storms.
To address this issue, scientists propose revising the classification scales for space weather events. Some suggest adding higher severity levels, while others recommend including additional phenomena like radiation dose rate and radio-wave propagation. A ‘traffic light’ model of warnings is suggested, where different colors indicate the level of risk and required actions for specific sectors.
For instance, a yellow warning could alert industries like aviation and agriculture about minor geomagnetic storms, while an orange warning might prompt power grid operators to take precautions. A red warning would signal dangerous space weather with significant impacts, requiring immediate actions from various sectors. This system allows for updates and escalations based on evolving data and can be expanded to include more sectors as needed.
A unified approach to improving space weather reporting and response strategies is essential. Space weather centers worldwide should collaborate to update classification systems, ensuring that terms like ‘extreme’ align with events that genuinely pose risks. By enhancing these systems, scientists can bridge the gap between public perception and the actual impact of space weather, ensuring preparedness without causing unnecessary alarm. As we face the peak of the solar cycle, it’s crucial to acknowledge and address the effects of space weather on our daily lives.