Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, has established clear guidelines for resolving bets related to the 2024 US Presidential Election in the event of contested results. The market, which focuses on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win the presidency, will be settled based on calls from major news organizations such as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If these outlets do not unanimously declare the same candidate as the winner by the inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025, the market will be resolved according to who is officially inaugurated as President.
However, concerns have been raised about potential manipulation of betting odds on the platform. While some accounts have placed significant wagers favoring Trump, others have bet on Harris, causing fluctuations in the market. Despite these concerns, Polymarket maintains that the market operates freely and openly, without any technical mechanisms being exploited to alter the odds.
As the election draws closer, the reliance on media outlets for market resolution raises questions about objectivity and potential biases. The differing projections of media organizations could lead to prolonged uncertainty for traders, especially in tight races. Ultimately, the final resolution of the market will depend on who is inaugurated as President, even if the media outlets do not agree.
In the case of a disputed election that prevents the President from being inaugurated by Jan. 20, the resolution of the Polymarket result could be further delayed. The 20th Amendment to the US Constitution provides a framework for such scenarios, stating that if there is no president-elect by Inauguration Day, the vice president-elect acts as President until a new president is qualified. If neither is qualified, Congress has the authority to determine the next steps, with the Speaker of the House being next in line according to the presidential line of succession.
While the likelihood of a contested result in the 2024 election has increased compared to previous years, it is still uncertain whether neither candidate will be elected on inauguration day. The market for whether the election will be certified on Jan. 6 has seen a decrease in probability from 94% to 84% since August, indicating growing concerns about potential disputes and delays in the election process. As traders navigate these uncertainties, Polymarket remains a key platform for predicting and resolving bets on the outcome of the US Presidential Election.
