Bitcoin’s price volatility is expected to increase in the days leading up to the US presidential elections, according to Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick. Kendrick pointed out that key metrics are showing a cautious yet optimistic market sentiment among Bitcoin traders as they prepare for potential economic and regulatory changes related to the election.
Recent data indicates that Bitcoin’s funding rates, which reflect market sentiment and the premium paid for long or short positions, are favoring bullish traders. This suggests that traders are confident in Bitcoin’s potential for short-term gains. Additionally, Bitcoin’s open interest has stabilized, indicating steady engagement from investors without the wild fluctuations in leverage seen in previous months.
Moreover, there has been a decrease in short liquidations, signaling a reduced interest in bearish bets as traders adopt a more positive outlook. Despite these positive trends, Kendrick warned of Bitcoin’s historical volatility around major political events, emphasizing the need for caution.
Looking ahead to the post-election period, Kendrick projected that a victory for former President Donald Trump could lead to a significant price surge for Bitcoin, potentially reaching $80,000 in the immediate aftermath and $125,000 by the end of the year if there is a Republican sweep of both the presidency and Congress. On the other hand, a Kamala Harris victory may introduce short-term uncertainty for Bitcoin, with a temporary price dip expected. However, Kendrick believes that Bitcoin could recover and stabilize around $75,000 by the end of the year under a Harris administration.
As of October 31, 2024, Bitcoin is ranked #1 by market cap, with a market capitalization of $1.4 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $40.84 billion. The total crypto market is valued at $2.37 trillion with a 24-hour volume of $86.45 billion, and Bitcoin dominance stands at 59.05%.
Overall, Bitcoin’s volatility is expected to increase in the lead up to the US elections, with various factors influencing its price movements. Traders should remain cautious and stay informed about the potential impact of the election results on the cryptocurrency market.
