A user on the prediction market Polymarket recently sold almost $4 million in bets on former US President Donald Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 elections. This user, known as “larpas,” had accumulated a total trading volume of over $15.3 million across 24 different markets. The selling activity started around 4 P.M. UTC and mostly involved bets on a Trump win and Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss.
As a result of the whale’s actions, Trump’s odds on the platform dropped from 60.6% to 56.2% before recovering to 58% at the time of reporting. It is worth noting that the selling began shortly after trader GCR advised users to steer clear of election-related polls until Nov. 5, citing the example of the 2000 US presidential elections which were decided by a tiny margin of 537 votes.
Arkham Intelligence, an on-chain data platform, highlighted that Trump’s chances of winning decreased in 9 out of 17 election venues based on their data. Despite this, Trump was still predicted to win in 14 different scenarios, including proprietary models, prediction markets, and aggregators.
In addition to the whale’s activities, it is essential for traders to consider various factors when making bets on prediction markets, especially during volatile times like national elections. By analyzing data from multiple sources and staying informed about the latest developments, investors can make more informed decisions and potentially mitigate risks associated with political betting.
While the outcome of the Nov. 5 elections remains uncertain, it is crucial for traders to exercise caution and not rely solely on speculation or individual opinions. Keeping an eye on reputable data platforms and expert analysis can help investors navigate the unpredictable nature of prediction markets and make more strategic bets in the long run.
