Bitcoin’s price outlook after the US election is a topic of interest, with many investors wondering if the cryptocurrency is primed for a post-election rally. According to a recent report by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s current valuation closely aligns with its price levels before the past two US elections. This suggests that Bitcoin could be poised for growth if a favorable post-election catalyst emerges.
Historically, Bitcoin has rallied after US presidential elections, with significant gains seen by the end of each election year. In 2020, Bitcoin saw a 98% increase, followed by a 37% increase in 2016 and a 22% increase in 2012. In 2024, Bitcoin is valued at around $67,000, slightly above the realized price, indicating healthy demand and potential for further price increases.
While global demand for Bitcoin is surging, US investors are exhibiting caution. The negative Coinbase premium, which reflects lower US demand compared to global trends, has been in the red since early October. This cautious approach is further evidenced by reduced leverage and profit-taking among traders.
Despite the recent price spike from $60,000 to $73,000, profit-taking led to a correction rather than speculative buildup. Traders chose to secure gains following a 20% price increase from early October, resulting in a reduction of open interest in Bitcoin futures markets. Additionally, daily Bitcoin inflows into exchanges are currently at 45,000 BTC, indicating decreased selling pressure.
While international demand for Bitcoin remains strong, driven by institutional and retail buyers seeking a hedge against economic uncertainties, US investors are hesitant to enter or expand their Bitcoin holdings at current price levels. The negative Coinbase premium suggests a wait-and-see approach or concerns about ongoing regulatory uncertainty in the crypto market.
The report highlights that any post-election policy developments or market-moving events in the US could potentially shift US investor sentiment and lead to a sustained rally. However, without a reversal of American sentiment, Bitcoin’s growth may rely heavily on continued international demand and favorable external economic factors.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is ranked #1 by market cap, with a market capitalization of $1.38 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $45.15 billion. The total crypto market is valued at $2.33 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance at 59.49%. As the post-election landscape unfolds, all eyes are on Bitcoin to see how it will respond to changing market conditions and investor sentiment.
