The latest predictions from Polymarket indicate that the upcoming US elections may hinge on the state of Pennsylvania. According to bettors on the platform, Vice President Kamala Harris has surpassed former President Donald Trump in the odds of winning in Michigan and Wisconsin. If Harris secures victories in these two swing states, Pennsylvania will become the crucial state that determines the outcome of the presidential election.
Following a recent CNN poll that showed no clear advantage for either candidate, Harris’ odds of winning Wisconsin and Michigan increased by 5% and 6% respectively. While her overall chances of winning the election rose from 2.3% to 39.6%, Trump still maintains a significant lead with 60.3% odds of winning. The president also holds a 14% advantage in Pennsylvania and leads in the remaining swing states of Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.
Despite Trump’s lead in various venues according to a report by Galaxy Research, the margins are tight, with the former president losing his lead in 13 out of 18 venues assessed. However, the data suggests a close race in many areas.
The intense interest in the US elections has driven Polymarket to achieve new records, with over 220,000 unique traders participating in October, marking a 174% growth from the previous month. The trading volume also surged to nearly $2.3 billion, a 353% increase in just one month. The majority of the activity on Polymarket last month was related to election betting, highlighting the platform’s significance in predicting the outcome of the race.
Despite rumors of manipulation on Polymarket, no concrete evidence has been presented to support these claims. Some experts, such as Tarek Mansour, CEO of prediction market Kalshi, argue that the odds on prediction markets are not easily manipulated.
As the US election draws near, all eyes are on Pennsylvania as the potential deciding state. With the race tightening and stakes high, the outcome remains uncertain until the final votes are cast.